PERT vs Monte Carlo: your three-point estimate lies about the deadline
PERT squeezes a whole range of outcomes into one average. Here is why that fails on a real 10-task project, and what to do instead.
Numbers-first notes on quoting fixed-price work
Short essays on the decisions a bid actually turns on — which percentile to quote, what deadline to promise, what a loss really costs. Every argument ends in a tool you can use for free.
P50 or P80: the quoting decision that decides whether you eat
Quote the median and half your fixed-price jobs go underwater. Quote P80 and you stay safe but lose bids. The portfolio math decides.
The fixed-price death spiral: how one underpriced job eats three good ones
An overrun costs more than the overrun: senior hours you cannot bill, deadlines you miss elsewhere, and the desperate next bid.
Deadline confidence: the number clients actually want
Clients do not want an earlier date. They want one they can plan around. Padding every task by 20% quietly costs you both — a worked example.
Your break-even is not a price — it is a clock
In fixed-price work, break-even moves every day the project runs. Same fee, nine extra days, and a healthy margin is a loss. Here is the math.
Want the engine behind these numbers? BidVariance runs full Monte Carlo on your real project — one-time license, no account, local-first.