What should you bid to keep your target margin?

A single cost estimate can hide how much room your quote leaves for overruns. Adjust the example cost range, margin and confidence below to see the price those assumptions imply. No account or license is needed.

To keep a 20.0% margin at 80% confidence you must bid at least 22,038 USD. At your proposed 20,000 USD, the margin you can defend at 80% confidence is only about 11.8%, below your target.

Try it with a real decision

Start with the example. Make it yours.

The numbers below are an editable example. Replace them with your own cost estimates; the answer updates as you type. Everything stays in this browser.

New to three-point estimates?

Optimistic: what it takes when things go well, without assuming a miracle.
Most likely: the outcome you would expect most often on similar work.
Pessimistic: a realistic difficult outcome. Include uncertainty, not an arbitrary markup.

Keep all three in the same units and put the most likely value between the other two. P80 means an estimated 80% chance of staying at or below a number under this model; it is not a promise.

These quick tools use a normal approximation, not simulated samples. The approximation can extend beyond your optimistic and pessimistic bounds, particularly for skewed estimates. For bounded task sampling, dependencies and separate risk events, use the full app.

Cost estimate, margin & confidence

Cost — optimistic (O)

Cost — most likely (M)

Cost — pessimistic (P)

Target margin (%)

Confidence for the headline bid probability outcomes stay at/below bid

Your current proposed price leave blank to skip the margin check

Currency label label only — no rates

Results

Minimum bid for your chosen margin and confidence22,038 USD

Your current proposed price20,000 USD

Scenario	P50	P80	P90
Cost level	15,667 USD	17,630 USD	18,657 USD
Minimum bid for 20.0% margin	19,583 USD	22,038 USD	23,321 USD
Margin you’d actually get at 20,000 USD	21.7%	11.8%	6.7%

Minimum bid = cost at P / (1 − margin). If the margin at your current price falls below your target at the confidence you care about, that price is too low to defend.

Formula

minimum bid at confidence c = cost_c / (1 − margin)

cost_c = mean + z_c·σ, with mean = (O + 4M + P)/6, σ = (P − O)/6

actual margin at price = (price − cost_c) / price

Normal approximation: cost P50/P80/P90 use a normal approximation to a Beta-PERT estimate — a fast, honest single-estimate shortcut.

Test an alternative

What changes if…?

Keep these results, then adjust an estimate above to compare. Your baseline stays in this tab until you clear it or reload. Values are rounded for display.

Plain text with your assumptions, key results and any saved baseline. No account needed.

No baseline yet. Keep a result you would like to compare.

Continue with the whole project

Test the project behind your bid

Build a task and risk model, then examine candidate prices against the resulting cost outcomes. Keep the margin and confidence assumptions visible as you negotiate.

The calculated bid depends on your input range and chosen confidence. It does not predict whether a client will accept the price. All outputs remain conditional on the assumptions you enter.

Start with a project template Explore the full app →

The formula gives a price in seconds; standing behind it in negotiation is the work. Recommended reading: How to Remain Valuable When Intelligence Becomes Cheap .

What should you bid to keep your target margin?

Cost estimate, margin & confidence

Results

Formula

What changes if…?

Test the project behind your bid

Product

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