What must you quote just to break even?

Fixed setup plus a daily team burn. If the job runs longer than your most-likely guess, your cost grows every day. Find the price that keeps you whole — and how much a too-cheap quote could cost you.

Your total cost is expected around 11,133 USD. Quoting 12,000 USD leaves about a 13.9% chance the job costs more than you charge. To be 80% sure of at least breaking even, quote about 11,807 USD or more.

Try it with a real decision

Start with the example. Make it yours.

The numbers below are an editable example. Replace them with your own duration estimates; the answer updates as you type. Everything stays in this browser.

New to three-point estimates?

Optimistic: what it takes when things go well, without assuming a miracle.
Most likely: the outcome you would expect most often on similar work.
Pessimistic: a realistic difficult outcome. Include uncertainty, not an arbitrary markup.

Keep all three in the same units and put the most likely value between the other two. P80 means an estimated 80% chance of staying at or below a number under this model; it is not a promise.

These quick tools use a normal approximation, not simulated samples. The approximation can extend beyond your optimistic and pessimistic bounds, particularly for skewed estimates. For bounded task sampling, dependencies and separate risk events, use the full app.

Costs & duration

One-off fixed costs

Daily burn (cost per day)

Duration — optimistic (O) days

Duration — most likely (M) days

Duration — pessimistic (P) days

Price you plan to charge

Currency label label only — no rates

Results

Total cost = fixed + burn × duration
If the job runs exactly…	Optimistic	Most likely	Pessimistic
Total cost (point estimate)	9,000 USD	11,000 USD	13,800 USD

Under duration uncertainty (normal approximation)
Scenario	P50	P80	P90
Total cost distribution	11,133 USD	11,807 USD	12,159 USD
Quote you need for break-even at this confidence	11,133 USD	11,807 USD	12,159 USD

Chance your quoted price does not break even13.9%

Quote for ≥80% break-even confidence11,807 USD

Quoting at the P50 figure gives only ~50% confidence of breaking even — a coin flip. P80 is the price at which an estimated 80% of outcomes cost no more than your quote under this normal approximation (so ≤20% lose money).

Formula

total cost = fixed + burn × duration

duration mean = (O + 4M + P)/6, σ = (P − O)/6

total cost at P = fixed + burn × (duration mean + z·σ)

P(cost > price) = 1 − Φ((price − mean total cost) / σ total)

Normal approximation: the total-cost P50/P80/P90 and loss probability use a normal approximation to the uncertain duration — a fast, honest single-estimate shortcut.

Test an alternative

What changes if…?

Keep these results, then adjust an estimate above to compare. Your baseline stays in this tab until you clear it or reload. Values are rounded for display.

Plain text with your assumptions, key results and any saved baseline. No account needed.

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Continue with the whole project

Make the cost of time visible

Separate task costs from project overhead, connect dependent work, and examine how a longer schedule changes your project economics.

A single daily burn rate simplifies a whole project. Real tasks may overlap and have different costs. All outputs remain conditional on the assumptions you enter.

Start with a project template Explore the full app →

Break-even is one line of arithmetic; reading what it means for the bid is commercial judgment. Recommended reading: How to Remain Valuable When Intelligence Becomes Cheap .

What must you quote just to break even?

Costs & duration

Results

Formula

What changes if…?

Make the cost of time visible

Product

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