What must you quote just to break even?
Fixed setup plus a daily team burn. If the job runs longer than your most-likely guess, your cost grows every day. Find the price that keeps you whole — and how much a too-cheap quote could cost you.
Your total cost is expected around 11,133 USD. Quoting 12,000 USD leaves about a 13.9% chance the job costs more than you charge. To be 80% sure of at least breaking even, quote about 11,807 USD or more.
Costs & duration
Results
| If the job runs exactly… | Optimistic | Most likely | Pessimistic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total cost (point estimate) | 9,000 USD | 11,000 USD | 13,800 USD |
| Scenario | P50 | P80 | P90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total cost distribution | 11,133 USD | 11,807 USD | 12,159 USD |
| Quote you need for break-even at this confidence | 11,133 USD | 11,807 USD | 12,159 USD |
Quoting at the P50 figure gives only ~50% confidence of breaking even — a coin flip. P80 is the price at which 80% of simulated outcomes finish at or below your quote (so ≤20% lose money).
Formula
total cost = fixed + burn × duration
duration mean = (O + 4M + P)/6, σ = (P − O)/6
total cost at P = fixed + burn × (duration mean + z·σ)
P(cost > price) = 1 − Φ((price − mean total cost) / σ total)
Normal approximation: the total-cost P50/P80/P90 and loss probability use a normal approximation to the uncertain duration — a fast, honest single-estimate shortcut.
Related tools
- Will this fixed-price project make money?
- What should I bid to keep my target margin?
- How likely are we to blow the budget?
- Turn a three-point estimate into P50/P80/P90
One fixed cost and one burn rate simplify reality. For a project with many tasks that each carry their own uncertainty, run the full multi-task analysis, or read the methodology to see how dependencies change the numbers.